Small caps have under performed for 20 years and will continue to do so. Don't take the bait that "they're cheap, Fed rate cuts blah blah".
Not many folks are looking for this as everyone seems to be calling for bonds to rally but I think there is a pretty good chance we get a flat 2's-10's sometime during Q2 Historically not a great omen for stonks when the curve disinverts
I've taken profits on my final NVDA long piece today and opted to go short with a tight stop as I think the turn could be near at hand (post split). Long from 800 exited final piece at 1240. New posn Short 1240 Stop 1280 Target 1000 Return/Risk 3:1
Similar to the patterns playing out elsewhere, the "inflation trade" is still supportive of hard assets (and miners). GDX has had a nice pullback into 38% and move ave support. I've been long for quite a long time but those looking to get some exposure can use this as an opportunity. Long 34, Stop 32, Trgt 40 Return/Risk = 3:1
Having rode the last leg higher in Copper nicely it has now pulled back into interesting levels again. If you are believer in the inflation trade (I am) then these sorts of pullbacks present decent opportunities to get back on board. Long 4.53 Stop 4.28 Tgt 5.20+ Rtn/Risk 3:1
Most folks know my view on inflation and yields over a very long term horizon years++ (they are going HIGHER) BUT in the short/med term we could be looking at a RALLY in bonds (lower yields) in the weeks ahead. LONG TLT @ 90.80 with a stop below 88.80 and a target of 100. Reward/Risk 5:1
I 'm looking at the potential "false break" of the uptrend channel (and triangle pattern) on the 4H chart which would be typical market shenanigans for a Friday afternoon.... If I'm right then BTC is going to rally directly from here. You can but 67000 with a stop 65000 and target 75000+ for a 4/1 reward/risk coming days/weeks
I've been suggesting this for a while but the accelerator has been pressed hard today. rotation out of tech (XLK) into oils (XLE). Has a lot of room to run.
Folks who follow me know I have been bearish regional banks for a while. KRE looks to be heading on another leg lower vs the market.
Think we can potentially get a big up move for Oil stocks vs SPX in the coming months. I'm long a bunch of names.
The Growth/Value ratio chart suggests that growth stocks may continue to outperform value stocks - which is normally in line with risk assets in general doing well.
Silver continues to find support and is likely headed to $36 next. Ultimately we could see $50 in the months/quarters ahead (say thanks to the Fed criminals).
Wheat made a significant low in Q1 and in line with many other commodities is now pushing higher thanks to the Fed criminals not having done enough QT. Would add to longs on pullbacks to $6.50.
Folks know how I feel about very long term (multi year/decade+) outlook for inflation and yields - they are going higher. And I have called for higher yields (and spreads) and thus dollar so far this year. BUT BUT BUT The yield spread chart is suggesting a potential divergent high which could have MAJOR implications across asset markets. Is it fortelling a turn...
German DAX has pulled back to the 50d sma and 38% retrace of the move up of the last few months (since last time it touched 50d sma). Looks like we may get another leg higher despite the clear lack of supportive fundamentals/geopolitics. Think we see 18600-19000 before a bigger effort to correct. Long 17800 tgt 18800 wroong below 17400.
Uranium got the pullback into early Q2 into the 80-85$ zone I was looking for and now looks like it is ready to head higher once again to 100$+ and retest the $105 area and likely ne highs in coming weeks/months.
The cocoa market is in the mania phase. Shorted at 10,000 in small size (2%), just one small position in the macro book, can only lose 2% even if it doubles in value from here! Caveat emptor. Target much lower over coming months.
Folks know my opinion on inflation being in a generational bull market. Generically speaking I am looking for thematic trades around this when they present and I have been long some metals/miners. Copper looks to be headed higher in the weeks ahead despite the pattern portraying a series of a-b-c moves.