As the 2024 presidential election draws nearer, a closely watched presidential forecast has been released, predicting an extremely close result in the hotly contested race.
The Forecast: FiveThirtyEight released its 2024 Presidential Election forecast on Tuesday.
President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, their respective parties’ presumed nominees, are neck and neck. The model gives Biden a 53% chance of winning and Trump a 47% chance. This is down from Biden’s 62% chance of winning in April. Biden has rebounded slightly since Trump’s conviction in New York for felony falsification of business records. This is higher than the odds given by several betting markets.
The model projects Biden winning the popular vote with 47.4% of the vote. Trump is projected to earn 44.8% and Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is projected to earn 7.8%.
FiveThirtyEight lists eight states as the most likely to be the tipping point in the election: Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida and Texas. Pennsylvania is the most likely to be the tipping point.
The model aggregates polling data from several sources and weights the polls based on pollster ratings. The forecast also adds fundamental factors, such as the strength of the economy, to adjust its odds. Although Biden has trailed Trump in many polls, the model believes that the president is strong in several fundamental areas.
Unusual Outcomes: The forecast also outlines the probabilities of several “unusual outcomes.”
The model gives Biden a 23% chance of winning the election in a “landslide” and Trump an 11% chance. It also gives Biden a 64% of winning the popular vote and Trump a 36% chance. Democrats have won the popular vote in seven out of the last eight elections since 1992.
FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 52% chance of winning a state in 2024 that he did not win in 2020 (likely North Carolina, Texas or Florida) and Trump a 78% chance (most likely in likely Nevada, Georgia or Arizona).
Previous Forecasts: FiveThirtyEight was founded by statistician Nate Silver, who no longer works for the company. Silver first attracted attention for correctly predicting 49 out of the 50 states in 2008. Silver also correctly predicted the 2012 and 2020 presidential elections, along with the 2022 midterms. The model was incorrect in 2016, predicting Hillary Clinton to defeat Trump—although it was incorrect, it gave Trump a better chance of winning (around 30%) than most other forecasts.
The aggregate is now run by G. Elliott Morris, who replaced Silver in 2023 after previously working for The Economist.
Polling in Peril: Although polling is seemingly more covered now than ever, it has been criticized for several inconsistencies and errors. In the 2020 election, there was a significant 4.6% polling error in favor of Biden. That figure was 4.8% in 2016. Forecasts such as FiveThirtyEight attempt to account for the probability of a significant polling error.
Some have linked the perceived inaccuracy in polling with the idea that some groups, particularly young voters, are less likely to pick up calls from pollsters.
Inaccuracy in polling is not limited to the United States. In Mexico’s presidential election on June 2, pollsters projected Claudia Sheinbaum to win 53% of the vote. Sheinbaum ended up winning 59%.
In India’s election on June 4th, pollsters believed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi‘s party would win in a landslide based on exit polls. Despite predictions that the party would win over 350 seats in the legislature, the coalition won just 293 seats. The iShares MSCI India ETF INDA, which tracks the Indian market, fell sharply the following day.
A prominent Indian pollster broke into tears on Indian television shortly afterwards when realizing his prediction’s inaccuracy.
Financial Markets Reaction: Betting markets such as Polymarket give Trump a higher chance of winning. Bettors give Trump a 56% chance of winning and Biden a 34% chance.
The majority of Americans believe that Trump would be better than Biden for the economy, despite encouraging signs such as GDP growth and a nearly 40% appreciation in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY since Biden’s inauguration.
Also Read: Donald Trump Vets Vice Presidential Candidates: GOP’s Top Contenders, Betting Odds
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